Berlin
Peace Dialogue
2024

Climate variability and change pose serious risks to peace and security — threatening food security, physical health, forcing displacement, and increasing the risk of conflict. Over recent decades, various early warning systems have been developed to anticipate and mitigate these risks in a changing climate. These systems aim to predict where and when crises are on the rise, playing a crucial role in in civilian crisis prevention.

This workshop brings together scientists, practitioners, and decision-makers to assess the effectiveness of existing early warning systems in timely risk detection and their role in informed decision-making. Importantly, we will explore how to enhance collaborations to improve science-based decisions and achieve the essential shift from early warnings to early action.

Panelists:

• Prof. Dr Nina von Uexkull, Professor of International Politics at the University of Konstanz and adjunct professor at the Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University
• Kristina Jonek, Head of Division S05: PREVIEW, Early Warning, Analysis, Information Management at the Federal Foreign Office
• Lisa Badum, Member of Parliament
• Martin Schuldes, Head of Division G 23: Peace and Security at the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)
• Prof. Dr Christoph Meyer, Professor of European & International Politics at King’s College London

For more than two years, Russia has waged a war of aggression against Ukraine in violation of international law and has further instigated the destabilization of Europe. This workshop will discuss the further scenarios of the course and possible ends to the war as well as the short and long-term consequences of the war for the European security order. Russia’s threat scenarios for Europe will be analyzed and the options that Germany has to support Ukraine beyond military aid and reconstruction will be discussed.

The role of Western involvement in supporting Ukraine will also be central to the debate, in particular the question of how far the political capital for supporting Ukraine extends, what implications donor conferences can have  for an end to the war and what the role of the ‘global South’ can be in  mediation efforts. The question of what influence the outcome of the US  election on the day of the Berlin Peace Dialogue 2024 has on European security will also be discussed. Participants of the discussion are a Ukrainian international law expert, a leading German general (retired), a prominent member of the German parliament’s defense committee and a speaker from the Ministry of Defense.

Panelists:

• Prof. Dr Tetyana Malyarenko, Founder & Director of the Ukrainian Institute for Crisis Management and Conflict Resolution, and Professor of International Security at the National University Odesa Law Academy, Ukraine
• Roderich Kiesewetter, Member of Parliament
• Rainer L. Glatz, Member of the Advisory Board, Lieutenant General (retired)
• Dr Christian Freuding, Major General, Director Joint Planning and Command Staff and Head of Situation Centre Ukraine, Federal Ministry of Defense

Climate change poses significant challenges to both Germany and the international community, with the potential as a “threat multiplier” to give rise to new conflicts or to exacerbate existing ones. These challenges further complicate Germany’s foreign policy efforts, including civilian crisis prevention and peacebuilding. As a promising approach, environmental peacebuilding seeks to integrate environmental management, climate action, and peacebuilding efforts to collectively address these issues. This approach not only seeks to mitigate potential conflicts but also promotes sustainable development and long-term peace through environmental and climate action.

With the launch of a new study by the Advisory Board on environmental peacebuilding, this workshop will explore different examples and perspectives on the interplay between climate change and peacebuilding. Drawing from the study’s insights and the workshop discussions, new ideas will be developed on how these insights can influence Germany’s foreign policy, and particularly the Guidelines on Civilian Crisis Prevention.

Presentation of Study:

• Dr Kira Vinke, Co-Chair of the Advisory Board & Head of the Center for Climate and Foreign Policy, German Council on Foreign Relations

Panelists:

• Nasreen Al-Amin, Founder and Executive Director of Surge Africa
• Dr Florian Krampe, Director of the SIPRI Climate Change and Risk Programme
• Dr Eva Kracht, Director-General for International and European Policy, Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Nuclear Safety and Consumer Protection (BMUV)
• Niklas Wagener, Member of Parliament